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Prediction for CME (2016-07-28T22:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2016-07-28T22:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/11083/-1
CME Note: The source of this CME is a filament eruption seen close to disk center in AIA 193/304 starting ~18:00 (with an activation/slow rise phase starting several hours earlier).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2016-08-02T11:23Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2016-08-02T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 33.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2016 Jul 29 1230 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 60729
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 29 Jul 2016, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 29 Jul 2016 until 31 Jul 2016)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Jul 2016  10CM FLUX: 070 / AP: 021
PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Jul 2016  10CM FLUX: 072 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 31 Jul 2016  10CM FLUX: 076 / AP: 007
COMMENT: Flaring activity has been very low, no C-class flares in past 24
h. There are two active regions on the visible solar disc, Catania 13 (no
NOAA number)  that emerged close to disk center yesterday and Catania 14
(NOAA AR 2570) that rotated over the east limb. No large flares expected
(although C-class flares are possible).
A filament erupted close to disk center starting around 16:00 UT on July
28, it produced a slow and faint CME directed to the southwest first seen
at 22:36 UT on LASCO C2. This CME could have an Earth directed component,
that could reach the Earth on August 2.
Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions were registered in the past 24
h, due to the effect of a high speed stream that reached 600 km/s with
magnetic field intensities up to 20 nT (without long periods of negative
Bz). Solar wind speed is still high, at 600 km/s, with interplanetary
magnetic field magnitude of 5 nT. Unsettled to active conditions are
expected for the next 48 h.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 021, BASED ON 23 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 28 Jul 2016
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 023
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 070
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 026
AK WINGST              : 017
ESTIMATED AP           : 019
ESTIMATED ISN          : 007, BASED ON 36 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT

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Lead Time: 93.47 hour(s)
Difference: -0.62 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2016-07-29T13:55Z

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